Testing cointegration between health care expenditure and GDP in Japan with the presence of a regime shift

Using quarterly data from 1994 through 2013, this article is the first to use the Hansen and Seo (2002) tests to examine the long-term relationship between real per-capita GDP (PGDP) and real per-capita health care expenditure (PHCE) in Japan with threshold effects. We detect the presence of a threshold cointegrating relationship between the two variables. In addition, we find that error correction adjustments are significantly conducted only through PGDP in a typical regime, whereas both PGDP and PHCE drive the adjustments in the extreme regime. We find that the extreme regime occurred mainly after Q4 2008, implying that the policy introducing the late-stage medical care system for the elderly in April 2008, which expanded the ratio of personal expenses for the elderly, may be effective for attaining a long-run equilibrium between PGDP and PHCE.     

Forecasting US consumer price index: does nonlinearity matter?

The objective of this article is to predict, both in sample and out of sample, the consumer price index (CPI) of the US economy based on monthly data covering the period of 1980:1–2013:12, using a variety of linear (random walk (RW), autoregressive (AR) and seasonal autoregressive integrated moving average (SARIMA)) and nonlinear (artificial neural network (ANN) and genetic programming (GP)) univariate models. Our results show that, while the SARIMA model is superior relative to other linear and nonlinear models, as it tends to produce smaller forecast errors; statistically, these forecasting gains are not significant relative to higher-order AR and nonlinear models, though simple benchmarks like the RW and AR(1) models are statistically outperformed. Overall, we show that in terms of forecasting the US CPI, accounting for nonlinearity does not necessarily provide us with any statistical gains.     

基础力学课程教学改革的研究与实践

该文在深入分析基础力学各相关课程相互关系的基础上，认为基础力学课程的改革，应该优化组合备相关课程内容，减少重复内容，形成新的教学体系；应该在教学手段上注意现代化教学手段与传统教学手段的结合，激发学生的学习兴趣，提高课堂的效率；也强调实验环节的重要性，要注重学生动手能力的培养。     

工程力学教学与学生能力的培养

根据工程力学课程的特点，从力学的基本概念、教学方法和教学模式上对工程力学的教学体系进行了分析，以充分调动学生的学习积极性，进一步提高学生的逻辑思维能力和综合解决问题能力，增强学生的创新意识和创新能力。     

China＇s Macroeconomic Development： Stages and Nonlinear Convergence

I. Introduction Since the second half of the 1990s, the Chinese economy has witnessed some unprecedented changes: a sharp increase in urban unemployment, stagnation of labor transfer from agriculture to non-agricultural sectors and serious deflation. All these changes indicate a significant departure from the previous development trajectory: sustained full employment in urban areas, rapid labor transfer from agriculture to non-agricultural sectors and persistent and significant inflation. Beg…     

消失模铸造干砂紧实特性的研究

本文研究了消失模铸造干砂振动紧实的规律性,设计了测定干砂紧实的实验装置,得出了干砂振动紧实与振动参数及负压的关系。     

广义非线性轴向运动弦的参数分析

本文的研究对象是服从边界控制的非线性轴向运动弦。弦线的运动方程以及边界条件都是根据Hamilton原理得出的。Laypunov关于运动的稳定性理论,特别是他的"直接法",为非线性系统的稳定性分析提供了一个有效且方便的工具,已经成为近代控制论的一个坚实的基础。     

振动信号数据处理技术

振动信号分析处理系统在国内、国外发展很快 ,以适应设备状态监测与故障诊断的需要。随着数字计算机的发展和各种数字信号处理方法软件的开发 ,用数字方法处理振动测量信号的技术日益广泛的被采用。本文利用《SDAS II信号采集与分析系统》对振动信号进行分析和处理 ,用共振法确定了系统的固有频率和阻尼比     

用能量方法求解一次超静定杆系问题

根据功能原理建立能量补充方程,并利用静力平衡方程,求解一次拉压超静定问题。该方法同时可用于扭转、弯曲等一次超静定问题的求解。